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Report of STAHY session at IUGG 2011


During the XXV IUGG General Assemlby the STAHY Working group co-sponsored two workshops:

HW06 “Expert judgement versus statistical goodness of-fit for hydrological model evaluation
Convener: Charles Perrin (France)
Co-Conveners: Mark Thyer (Australia), Hoshin Gupta (United States of America), Jean-Emmanuel Paturel (Burkina Faso)

HW13 "Recent development of statistical tools for hydrological application"
Convener: Salvatore Grimaldi (Italy)
Co-conveners: Demetris Koutsoyiannis (Greece), Antonino Cancelliere (Italy), George Kuczera (Australia), Hafzullah Aksoy (Turkey), Dan Rosbjerg (Denmark)

In the following, or clicking on the workshop title, are available reports, poster and presentation files.


HW06 “Expert judgement versus statistical goodness of-fit for hydrological model evaluation

The evaluation of hydrological models is a difficult task. One can use either visual assessment (simulated and observed hydrographs, scatterplots, etc.) or a multitude of statistics (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE, bias, etc.). Do the statistics agree with the expert judgement? How people think when they evaluate a model? Which statistics capture the expert judgements?
Prior to the workshop, a few models were tested on a variety of conditions and an Internet-based survey was developed to gauge expert judgement (preparatory work by L. Crochemore at Cemagref). Participants to the workshop were invited to undertake the evaluation survey during the workshop. It consisted in ranking the models' fit using the graphical results of the tested models for two main objectives (high-flow and low-flow simulation). Results were compared to the ranking of models obtained using a set of statistical measures. The aim was to test the hypothesis whether there is a link between the way expert thinks and statistical criteria that reflect the expert opinion.
The workshop had also invited presentations on the following issues:
• procedures for model assessment and comparisons
• meaning and use of statistical criteria versus expert judgement
• the use of criteria for model calibration and diagnosis
• the role of uncertainties in model assessment

The session involved 11 oral contributions and 1 poster (listed at the end of the report) and was attended by more than 100 people.
All the authors delivered interesting presentations underlined by a rich discussion.

List of HW06 oral and poster contributions
(with links to the pdf presentation & poster files)

Introduction by Charles Perrin

Interactvie Survey

Survey Result

Oral Session

Man vs. Machine: a Swedish Experiment on Hydrological Model Performance Assessment
J. Olsson, J. Dahné, B. Arheimer, H. Amaguchi, A. Kawamura. (invited lecturer)

Automated Detection and Categorization of Hydrograph Errors for Updating Operational Hydrologic Models
A.S. Gragne, K. Alfredsen.
(download the presentation)

Use of various types of evaluation criteria at different stages of model implementation.
O. Semenona

On the significance of the performance criteria of event-based fl ood models
R. Moussa
(download the presentation)

Verification Methods for Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts
Robertson, Q.J. Wang, D.L. Shrestha, A. Schepen, P. Porkhrel.
(download the presentation)

The effect of choice of calibration Criteria on Hydrological Model Performance
Z. Bargaoui

Using entropy as a descriptor of flow duration for rainfall-runoff model calibration
I. Pechlivanidis, B. Jackson, H. McMillan, H. Gupta.
(download the presentation)

The value of considering uncertainty in design of model performance indicators
B. Croke

Use of Multiple Data Types to Evaluate and Diagnose Weaknesses in Hydrological Models
H. McMillan, M. Clark, D. Tetzlaff.

Impact of modeller’s attitude in catchment modelling: stage from priori prediction to calibration
Holländer, SFB/TRR 38 C2 team.
(download the presentation)

How is hydrological modelling at large improving?
M. Ferraresi

Poster Session

The Effectiveness of Hydrological Models Sreamflow Prediction With Better Representations Of Data And Model Uncertainties: Incorporating Sequential Monte Carlo Sampler With Hierarchical Mixtures Of Experts.
E. Jeremiah, A. Sharma, L. Marshall & S. Sisson.
(download the presentation)

Pictures from HW06 workshop

Ashenafi Seifu Gragne                   Charles Perrin                                              David Robertson

Jonas Olsson                                          Olga Semenova                                                 Roger Moussa

Survey Exercise                                                                   Attendences at work

  Zoubeida Bargaoui                                                     Barry Croke

Hartmut Michael Holländer                                           E. Jeremiah

Hilary McMillan                                                            Ilias Pechlivanidis

HW13 "Recent development of statistical tools for hydrological application"

Convener: Salvatore Grimaldi (Italy)
Co-conveners: Demetris Koutsoyiannis (Greece), Antonino Cancelliere (Italy), George Kuczera (Australia), Hafzullah Aksoy (Turkey), Dan Rosbjerg (Denmark)

The workshop collected 16 oral contributions and 14 posters (see the list at the end of the report) organized in three oral sessions and in a poster session.
George Kuczera, Dan Rosbjerg, Hafzullah Aksoy, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis brilliantly served as chairpersons.
Convener and Co-conveners agreed to allocate their contributions in the poster session either to make available oral slots for Australian researchers and to make more appealing the poster session. The result was more then positive indeed the poster area was extremely crowded stimulating the discussion for more than one hour.

The first oral session involved all speakers describing statistical methods and applications currently in use in Australia. It was particularly interesting to have the evidence that in Australia either the research community and above all the institutions are advanced users of statistical methods in hydrological applications. Particularly attracting were the presentations about the use of Max-stable processes and Partial Information Theory given by Ashish Sharma.
The second oral session was characterized by more general topics. Interesting contributions were presented about copula function application. In the first one (Elena Volpi) an attempt on the selection of Peak-Volume flood information for a given joint return period was proposed and in the second one an innovative application, in term of data used, was given (K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen) considering as variables the water depth and the rainfall amount.
In the third session presentations about Unusual events (Andreas Bardossy) and Dragon kings (Daniel Schertzer) were particularly appealing.

The workshop was attended by around 100 people.

List of HW13 oral and poster contributions
(with links to the pdf presentation & poster files)

Oral Sessions

Detection of non-stationarity in precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model

S. Westra, S. Sisson.

Homogeneity and Trend Analysis in Precipitation and Streamfl ow Data of the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey
E. Eris, N. Agiralioglu.
(download the presentation)

Quantile Hydrologic Model Selection and Uncertainty Assessment

S. Pande, M. Keyzer, H. Savenije, A. Gosain.

Statistical Modelling Approaches for Uncertainty Quantification

Q. Wang, D. Robertson, A. Schepen, D.L. Shrestha, P. Pokhrel, et al.

Comparing Bootstrap and Bayesian Methods to Estimate Uncertainty in Constituent Annual Loads in the Gippsland Lakes Basin
O. Vigiak, S. Norng, J. Whitford, A. Roberts.
(download the presentation)

System Specification Using Partial Information

A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra.

Applying Short-range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting to Korea
T. Kang, K. Kim, Y. Kim.

Identification of hydrological design events using copulas

E. Volpi, A. Fiori, CP. Mancini, G. Calenda.

A new fuzzy approach to flood estimation

J.L. Salinas, G. Bloschl, R. Viertl.

An iterative nesting bias correction technique to remove systematic biases in GCM outputs
R. Mehrotra, Ashish. Sharma.

Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, A.N. Pedersen, P.S. Mikkelsen.

Simulating streamfl ow using remote sensing data: Artificial neural network approach
N. Gamage, V. Smakhtin, C. Perera.

The use of unusual hydrological events for hydrological modelling

A. Bardossy

Dragon-Kings, Outliers Or Hydrological Extremes?

D. Schertzer, S. Lovejoy.

Conditioning hydrological models on regional signatures for probabilistic predictions in ungauged basins and for assessing climate change impacts
T. Wagener, R. Singh.
(download the presentation)

Modelling Rainfall Errors within a Bayesian Rainfall runoff Inference Framework
G. Evin, D. Kavetski, G. Kuczera, M. Thyer.
(download the presentation)

Poster Session

Artificial Neural Network Models Combined with Simple Statistical Hydrology Tools

H. Aksoy & A. Dahamsheh.
(download the presentation)

Similarity-Based Regionalization to Parameterize Velocity in a GIUH-Type Approach

C. Cudennec, A. de Lavenne & E. Cestin.

A Comparison of Two Hydrologic Post-processing Methods

Q. Duan, C. Miao, D. Jiang, J. Schaake & L. Zhao.

Using qualitative fl ow statuses for characterizing regimes of temporary streams

F. Gallart, N. Prat, E M. Garcia-Roger, J. Latron, M. Rieradevall, et al.
(download the presentation)

Inflow in South Eastern Australia catchments: orographic effects and large-scale climatic influences.
M. Griffiths & B. Timbal.

Applications of a copula-based multivariate frequency analysis in rainfall and runoff modeling
S. Vandenberghe, N.E.C. Verhoest & B. De Baets.

Synthetic Design Hydrograph definition using GSTSP distribution functions
S. Grimaldi & F. Serinaldi.
(download the presentation)

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Bayesian Generalized Least Squares in a Region-of-Influence Context
G. Kuczera
(download the presentation)

Assessment of Future Depth-Duration-Frequency Relationship Considering Climate Change in South Korea

J. Shin, K. Joo & J. Heo.

Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Patterns and Characterization of Heavy Rain Events in the Tropical Island of Tahiti

L. Sichoix & J.P. Barriot.

Hierarchical bayesian analysis: A new path forward for the PUB initiative

T. Smith, L. Marshall & A. Sharma.

Identification and determination of fresh flows using a hydrological time-series for rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin
C. Smith, M. Coleman & I. Burns.

The Maximum Likelihood Method for the Burr XII implemented in Interval Analysis
R. Van Nooijen, E. Ellouze-Gargouri & A.G. Kolechkina.

Use of a Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model for downscaling extreme events from climate change projections
D. Rosbjerg, M. Sunyer

Pictures from the HW13 workshop

Ashish Sharma                                                    Hafiz Aksoy                                                        Saket Pande

Q. Wang                                                                        Olga Vigiak                                                 Salvatore Grimaldi & Hafiz Aksoy

T. Kang                                                                         Elena Volpi                                                  Jose Salinas                 Rajeshwar Mehrotra

Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen                                         Nilantha Gamage                          Andras Bardossy                             Daniel Schertzer

ThorstenWagener                                                    Guillaume Evin                          Hafiz Aksoy & Mikhail Bolgov

Quingyung Duan?                                                          Ronald Van Nooijen                                                  Celina Smith

Tyler Smith ?                                                            Morwenna Griffiths
                            Alban de Lavenne

Hafiz Aksoy & Salvatore Grimaldi
                                                                                                        Ju Young Shin

Dan Rosbjerg, Hafiz Aksoy, Salvatore Grimaldi, Demetris Koutsoyiannis & George Kuczera




Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare

Institute for Environmental Protection and Research

 Honors Center of Italian Universities - H2CU 
Sapienza University of Rome

University of Tuscia,
Viterbo, Italy


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